Barna Reports Unchurched Are Fastest Growing Faith Group in America: Of Monty Python, Boiled Frogs & Bouncing Cats

A few weeks back, someone I admire had a blog post entitled Not As Bad As We Suggest, in which he used National Council of Churches data to indicate that the state of American Christianity is not as bad as we sometimes to make it to be.  This fellow is a bit of a coyote, a clever trickster - so part of me thinks he might be inspired by a fav part of Monty Python & The Holy Grail:

King Arthur: [after Arthur's cut off both of the Black Knight's arms] Look, you stupid Bastard. You've got no arms left.
Black Knight: Yes I have.
King Arthur: *Look*!
Black Knight: It's just a flesh wound.

    Black Knight: Right, I'll do you for that! 
   King Arthur: You'll what? 
   Black Knight: Come here! 
   King Arthur: What are you gonna do, bleed on me? 
   Black Knight: I'm invincible! 

I wish I agreed with what appears to be an un-ironic statement that every thing is OK, in fact things have never been better.   If it were the case that following Jesus "has never had more influence in the world" or that this is simply a case of "some brands are losing size, but over all things are up even from last year", then I would be giddy as Sidney Ponson after a new shipment of Jheri Curl.

My sense is a tad different - in fact, it strikes me as something closer to the popular myth of how to boil a frog:

There's an old folk warning that if you throw a frog in boiling water he will quickly jump out. But if you put a frog in a pan of cold water and raise the temperature ever so slowly, the gradual warming will make the frog doze happily . . . in fact, the frog will eventually cook to death, without ever waking up.

The confluence of a bunch of things seems to have heated up the water in which institutions called churches exist, making them feel almost invincible like the Black Knight - a perfect storm of economic, political or cultural factors. There is a sense that one team is "winning" in America, that team is Church Goers (tm), and that the American Empire is God's right hand.

It feels to me like a hot tub - bubbly, hot - and filled with more germs that a public phone.  In a Barna survey (see results below) of 2006 adults, age 18 and older, conducted in January 2007 indicated that since 1994, the percentage of adults who have steered clear of churches for at least the past six months has remained stable.  When Barna's survey statistics are projected across the aggregate adult population:

the numbers are staggering. An estimated 73 million adults are presently unchurched. When teens and children are added, the total swells to roughly 100 million Americans.

Let that sink in.  In a period of dominance - some would say oppression - from one "brand" of Christianity (Evangelicalism) in America, communicated with a brand consistency that would make McDonald's envious - not one percentage uptick.  In a time period that many referred to as the "Decade of Evangelism" - not one percentage uptick.

While Barna's methodology might not be as rigorous as could be, it's hard to argue with that trend directionally.  What fascinates me even more are a few of his insights into the rationale for this:

1. The relative indifference of most churched Christians to unchurched people.
2. The emphasis on personal rather than communal faith journey.
3. The failure to listen to dissident voices and spiritual guidance to dig deeper in one’s faith

Now the NCC stats may be accurate (note to self: typing that rules out any fundamentalist ministry aspirations of mine).  It may just be tired old brands like Montgomery Wards (in this case, what used to be called mainliners) dying off, to be replaced by Wal-Mart (in this case, mega-churches & multi-sites).  If so, I am as happy as a coupon-clipper on Sunday morning.

But I think it's a frog that's boiling (or a cat that is bouncing).  Just as the Mayan & Mesopotamian cultures crumbled in of their hubris, I think that the death of American Christendom is in full swing.

And truth be told, this prognostication on my part brings me joy.  The Jesus story is one of transformation, of new life coming after death (not decline or denial).  Our wounds are self inflicted - they are not minor flesh wounds. People are more hungry for the story of God made flesh - the reality of that story imprisoned in crumbling building seems like my beloved Black Knight:

King Arthur: Victory is mine!
[Kneels to pray]
King Arthur: We thank thee, Lord, that in thy mercy -
[Cut off by the Knight kicking him]
Black Knight: Come on, then.
King Arthur: What?
Black Knight: Have at you!
King Arthur: You are indeed brave, Sir Knight, but the fight is mine!
Black Knight: Oh, had enough, eh?
King Arthur: Look, you stupid bastard. You've got no arms left!

According to a new survey released by The Barna Group, one third of the U.S. has not been to church in six months or more.

Unchurched PopulationNears 100 Million in the U.S.

March 19, 2007

(Ventura, CA) - Life in America has changed greatly since 1994, with massive changes in technology, global politics, lifestyle choices and family dynamics. But one constant has been the proportion of adults in the population who are unchurched. During that period there have been noteworthy shifts in religious behavior, but the percentage of adults who have steered clear of churches for at least the past six months has remained stable since 1994.

A new survey released by The Barna Group, which has been tracking America’s religious behavior and beliefs since 1984, reveals that one out of every three adults (33%) is classified as unchurched - meaning they have not attended a religious service of any type during the past six months. While that figure is considerably higher than the one out of five who qualified as unchurched in the early Nineties, it is statistically unchanged since 36% were recorded as having avoided religious services in the company’s 1994 study.

Some Groups Avoid Churches

Some population segments are notorious church avoiders. For instance, 47% of political liberals are unchurched, more than twice the percentage found among political conservatives (19%). African Americans were less likely to be unchurched (25%) than were whites (32%) or Hispanics (34%). Asians, however, doubled the national average: 63% were unchurched! Single adults continued a historic pattern of being more likely than married adults to stay away from religious services (37% versus 29%, respectively).

Residents of the West (42%) and Northeast (39%) remain the most church resistant, while those in the South are the least prone to avoid religious services (26%). Sexual orientation is closely related to church status, too: while about one-third of heterosexuals are unchurched (31%), half of the homosexual public (49%) met the unchurched criteria.

Within the various faith communities residing in the U.S., Christians are the most consistent church goers. A majority of the adults (61%) who are associated with a faith other than Christianity had not attended any type of religious service in the past half-year. In fact, people aligned with a faith other than Christianity are two-and-a-half times as likely as self-designated Christians to be unchurched (61% versus 24%, respectively).

Looking at the distinctions within the Christian population, evangelicals are the most reliable church goers: just 1% is unchurched. Born again Christians who are not evangelical also had a pretty formidable attendance record: only one out of every six (16%) were unchurched. However, adults who call themselves Christian but are not born again were by far the least reliable church goers within the Christian realm (32% were unchurched).

Catholics have traditionally been more consistent in church attendance than Protestants. However, in the mid-nineties that trend reversed course, and Catholics have been more likely than Protestants to earn the unchurched label throughout the past decade. Currently the gap between the two segments of Christians is five percentage points, with a higher percentage among Catholics (25% are unchurched) than Protestants (20% are unchurched).

Within the Protestant community, people who typically attend a mainline church were nearly twice as likely as those who attend non-mainline Protestant congregations to be unchurched (26% versus 16%, respectively). Also, church size was related to attendance patterns: 24% of the people who attend small churches were unchurched, compared to 15% who usually go to a mid-sized congregation, and just 5% of those who affiliate with a large church (defined as attracting 500 or more adults on an average weekend).

Massive Numbers

When these statistics are projected across the aggregate adult population, the numbers are staggering. An estimated 73 million adults are presently unchurched. When teens and children are added, the total swells to roughly 100 million Americans.

To put that figure in context, if the unchurched population of the United States were a nation of its own, that group would be the eleventh most populated nation on earth (trailing only China, India, the churched portion of the United States, Brazil, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Russia, Japan and Mexico).

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Early rising enables us to plan the work of the day. We can’t work well without a plan. Just as the plan for the year should be made in spring, so the plan for the day should be made in the morning.

[bob]

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